Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.6% | 71.4% | +5.0 | ✓ (6.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers +11 (105-94). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 35 | 9-15 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 33 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 32 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 23 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 24 | 6-15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 19 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 17 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 15 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Garland * | 36 | 5-16 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Evan Mobley * | 34 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Isaac Okoro * | 34 | 7-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jarrett Allen * | 32 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Lauri Markkanen * | 31 | 5-13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Ricky Rubio | 27 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kevin Love | 23 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 6-6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Lamar Stevens | 12 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Cedi Osman | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter