Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.2% | 51.8% | +0.4 | ✗ (15.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -15 (90-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks * | 35 | 8-21 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 32 | 6-16 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones * | 31 | 4-10 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Desmond Bane * | 31 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Steven Adams * | 31 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 5-9 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| De'Anthony Melton | 23 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| John Konchar | 22 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Xavier Tillman | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Santi Aldama | 10 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Ziaire Williams | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Yves Pons | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jarrett Culver | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Killian Tillie | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 39 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 24 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 24 | 4-13 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 22 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 31 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 11-19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 24 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 16 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter