Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | +2.1 | ✓ (19.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +22 (124-102). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 32 | 4-17 | 1-6 | 6-8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 27 | 4-12 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 25 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 24 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 28 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 28 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Max Strus | 23 | 8-13 | 6-9 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 16 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 23 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 32 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - | |
| Bobby Portis * | 29 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 29 | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 29 | 9-18 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 19 | - | |
| Pat Connaughton * | 28 | 8-15 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 13 | - | |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili * | 21 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Javonte Smart | 28 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - | |
| Rodney Hood | 27 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 15 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - | |
| Wesley Matthews | 11 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Jordan Nwora | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter