Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.7% | 44.3% | -1.3 | ✓ (7.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -9 (104-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 38 | 9-18 | 6-13 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 7-16 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 30 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 29 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 6-7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 22 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 27 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 19 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 17 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 13 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 38 | 4-14 | 1-7 | 5-6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Caris LeVert * | 37 | 8-16 | 1-5 | 10-11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Chris Duarte * | 36 | 6-15 | 1-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 34 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | - | - | |
| Torrey Craig * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Domantas Sabonis | 37 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 20 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Kelan Martin | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb | 11 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Brad Wanamaker | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter