Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.4% | 33.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.2% | 52.8% | +0.6 | ✗ (9.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.7% | 63.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -9 (111-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon * | 37 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 32 | 9-14 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Will Barton * | 32 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green * | 30 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris * | 28 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo | 23 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 20 | 6-9 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Austin Rivers | 15 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 10 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Markus Howard | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 11-19 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 32 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 32 | 8-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 29 | 1-9 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 30 | 6-12 | 6-12 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 29 | 5-13 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 11 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter