Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Chicago Bulls | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.4% | 48.6% | -0.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.5% | 33.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Chicago Bulls -3 (104-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 6-15 | 0-4 | 6-7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 24 | 6-14 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 18 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 30 | 4-11 | 1-7 | 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 30 | 6-11 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 17 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan * | 40 | 11-19 | 0-4 | 6-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Lonzo Ball * | 36 | 4-12 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Zach LaVine * | 36 | 6-16 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Nikola Vucevic * | 29 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Javonte Green * | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Alex Caruso | 34 | 6-8 | 3-4 | 7-7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Coby White | 19 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter