Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.2% | 44.8% | -1.1 | ✓ (6.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 82.5% | 17.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.9% | 19.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.0% | 19.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons -8 (92-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 35 | 4-10 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 4-13 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 17 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 20 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 23 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 32 | 12-21 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 21 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 25 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 18 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saddiq Bey * | 35 | 6-16 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | - | |
| Jerami Grant * | 34 | 6-17 | 1-5 | 8-9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - | |
| Cory Joseph * | 34 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 16 | - | |
| Cade Cunningham * | 28 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Luka Garza * | 17 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - | |
| Frank Jackson | 30 | 5-12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | - | |
| Trey Lyles | 24 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Hamidou Diallo | 15 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Josh Jackson | 11 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - | |
| Saben Lee | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter