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2021-11-20

Model Predictions

Model Chicago Bulls Denver Nuggets Spread Result
Elo 22.2% 77.8% - ✗
Bradley-Terry 33.3% 66.7% - ✗
Margin 25.9% 74.1% +5.8 ✗ (11.8 off)
Pythagorean 44.6% 55.4% - ✗
Efficiency 36.3% 63.7% - ✗
Adjusted Efficiency 41.0% 59.0% - ✗
Log Adjusted 41.0% 59.0% - ✗
Points Off/Def 39.0% 61.0% - ✗

Actual: Denver Nuggets -6 (108-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Chicago Bulls

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Lonzo Ball * 37 3-9 1-6 0-0 3 6 1 0 7 - -
Zach LaVine * 36 14-24 4-9 4-4 5 4 1 0 36 - -
DeMar DeRozan * 36 7-21 0-2 12-12 6 4 2 0 26 - -
Alex Caruso * 34 1-8 0-5 2-2 4 2 1 1 4 - -
Tony Bradley * 15 3-3 0-0 2-2 5 2 0 0 8 - -
Derrick Jones Jr. 23 7-10 0-1 2-2 8 0 0 1 16 - -
Ayo Dosunmu 22 4-8 2-4 0-0 8 0 1 0 10 - -
Javonte Green 22 1-3 1-1 2-2 9 1 1 1 5 - -
Coby White 10 1-7 0-3 0-0 2 0 0 0 2 - -

Denver Nuggets

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Aaron Gordon * 36 10-12 1-2 7-9 9 4 0 2 28 - -
Will Barton * 33 9-16 3-8 2-3 4 3 0 1 23 - -
Austin Rivers * 32 3-5 2-4 1-2 2 1 0 0 9 - -
Jeff Green * 29 3-10 1-4 2-2 4 4 1 0 9 - -
Monte Morris * 28 3-10 0-3 0-0 3 5 1 0 6 - -
Facundo Campazzo 26 5-9 4-5 2-2 2 4 2 0 16 - -
P.J. Dozier 22 3-7 1-3 2-2 10 2 0 1 9 - -
Bones Hyland 18 2-7 2-5 0-0 2 0 0 0 6 - -
JaMychal Green 11 1-6 0-3 0-0 2 1 1 1 2 - -

* = starter