Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 29.2% | 70.8% | +4.9 | ✗ (17.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 83.1% | 16.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.9% | 18.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.9% | 18.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 70.9% | 29.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder -13 (90-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 9-18 | 5-8 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 32 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 8-15 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 30 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 29 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 22 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 19 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 16 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 15 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 34 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 31 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 31 | 8-16 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl * | 25 | 6-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Darius Bazley * | 24 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 19 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Aleksej Pokusevski | 16 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Roby | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Ty Jerome | 11 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 8 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Tre Mann | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter