Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.8% | 51.2% | +0.3 | ✓ (9.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +10 (111-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monte Morris * | 37 | 8-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 36 | 15-26 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 35 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 35 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green * | 32 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Austin Rivers * | 29 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| P.J. Dozier | 22 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 11 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 37 | 9-23 | 2-7 | 3-5 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 33 | 11-20 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 29 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 33 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 23 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 17 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 35 | 8-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock | 29 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 16 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Sterling Brown | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Boban Marjanovic | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter