Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.8% | 65.2% | +3.4 | ✓ (13.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +17 (113-96). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 0-8 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 10-18 | 2-3 | 9-11 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 27 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 21 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 30 | 3-12 | 2-9 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 20 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 11 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gordon * | 36 | 4-11 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Will Barton * | 34 | 9-14 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 23 | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 33 | 10-14 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 40 | - | |
| Jeff Green * | 33 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | - | |
| Monte Morris * | 30 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - | |
| P.J. Dozier | 20 | 2-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 16 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 15 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Austin Rivers | 15 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | |
| Markus Howard | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | |
| Bol Bol | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter