Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.7% | 34.3% | -3.6 | ✓ (13.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -17 (78-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart * | 30 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 29 | 3-13 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Al Horford * | 29 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 29 | 5-14 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Robert Williams III * | 23 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dennis Schroder | 29 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Romeo Langford | 27 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith | 18 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams | 12 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jabari Parker | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Juancho Hernangomez | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 38 | 8-18 | 0-4 | 4-8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 35 | 5-17 | 5-17 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 31 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 28 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 29 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 19 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter