Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.4% | 57.6% | +1.7 | ✗ (16.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -15 (110-125). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 35 | 7-10 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 15-17 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 8-18 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 30 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 23 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 34 | 11-20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 13 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 35 | 10-24 | 3-9 | 10-12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 33 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 31 | 5-15 | 4-13 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson * | 30 | 10-13 | 2-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 30 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 25 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock | 25 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 18 | 2-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Sterling Brown | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Boban Marjanovic | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Moses Brown | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| JaQuori McLaughlin | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter