Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.0% | 66.0% | +3.7 | ✗ (29.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies -26 (103-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 30 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 10-11 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 29 | 5-8 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 5-10 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 25 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 17 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 31 | 8-19 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 26 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 20 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 16 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 4 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant * | 32 | 7-18 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| De'Anthony Melton * | 27 | 6-12 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Desmond Bane * | 25 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. * | 23 | 3-12 | 0-8 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - | - | |
| Steven Adams * | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson | 19 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Xavier Tillman | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Sam Merrill | 16 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Ziaire Williams | 15 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones | 14 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| John Konchar | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Killian Tillie | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Santi Aldama | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Brandon Clarke | 5 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter