Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.4% | 66.6% | +3.8 | ✓ (27.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +31 (106-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 26 | 5-18 | 1-4 | 5-5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 23 | 0-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock * | 21 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 21 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 19 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 22 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 19 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 18 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 16 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Trey Burke | 15 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | 8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Moses Brown | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Boban Marjanovic | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barton * | 27 | 7-12 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 25 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 24 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 23 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| P.J. Dozier | 22 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo | 17 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Austin Rivers | 17 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green | 16 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 11 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 7 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Markus Howard | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter