Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.5% | 32.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.2% | 68.8% | +4.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +5 (104-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Poeltl * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dejounte Murray * | 35 | 10-17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV * | 27 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson * | 27 | 4-14 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Devin Vassell | 27 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bryn Forbes | 19 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | 14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tre Jones | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic * | 34 | 11-19 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 32 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 31 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock * | 29 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 24 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 30 | 8-15 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 29 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | - | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 13 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 13 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
* = starter