Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.4% | 39.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.7% | 44.3% | -1.3 | ✗ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers +11 (102-91). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 7-22 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 12 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 39 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 23 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 36 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 35 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 24 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 41 | 12-28 | 3-12 | 3-3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 12 | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 16 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - | |
| Max Strus | 16 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis * | 42 | 8-17 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 20 | - | |
| Chris Duarte * | 41 | 6-21 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 5 | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 41 | 5-19 | 0-7 | 8-8 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 19 | - | |
| Justin Holiday * | 37 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 16 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 31 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 18 | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 24 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb | 17 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 11 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Isaiah Jackson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter