Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | +6.5 | ✗ (14.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Boston Celtics -8 (121-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 29 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 17 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 34 | 10-15 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 24 | 6-11 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 39 | 12-21 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Kemba Walker * | 38 | 14-27 | 4-11 | 4-6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 36 | - | - | |
| Evan Fournier * | 36 | 7-15 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | - | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 32 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Tristan Thompson * | 28 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith | 17 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Carsen Edwards | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Semi Ojeleye | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter