Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.9% | 55.1% | +1.1 | ✗ (15.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 58.0% | 42.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -14 (113-127). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 33 | 13-24 | 10-18 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 18 | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 33 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 30 | 8-15 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 28 | - | |
| Josh Richardson * | 22 | 6-11 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | |
| Dwight Powell | 28 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 | - | |
| Josh Green | 23 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 18 | 7-12 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10 | - | |
| Nicolo Melli | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Trey Burke | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - | |
| JJ Redick | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Tyler Bey | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Nate Hinton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 37 | 6-14 | 4-11 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 19 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 32 | 5-16 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 23 | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 25 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 13 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala * | 22 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 27 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 7-8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 20 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | |
| Max Strus | 14 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 12 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 11 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter