Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.7% | 67.3% | +4.0 | ✓ (1.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (116-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray * | 36 | 8-17 | 1-4 | 5-5 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 28 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson * | 27 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Devin Vassell * | 25 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | 29 | 7-15 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Rudy Gay | 22 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Patty Mills | 15 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gorgui Dieng | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 39 | 11-23 | 0-1 | 7-7 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 37 | 8-14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 32 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 25 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 6-12 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 24 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 15 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter