Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.1% | 54.9% | +1.1 | ✓ (13.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +15 (118-103). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 7-7 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 7-13 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 5-13 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 31 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 23 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 17 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 16 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 11 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Huerter * | 35 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill * | 35 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic * | 33 | 7-13 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| John Collins * | 32 | 9-14 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Danilo Gallinari | 22 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Brandon Goodwin | 21 | 6-10 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Lou Williams | 19 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Nathan Knight | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter