Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.6% | 48.4% | -0.3 | ✓ (19.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -20 (87-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 24 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 28 | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 29 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 25 | 8-13 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 19 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 19 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 18 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | |
| Max Strus | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan * | 31 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Derrick White * | 31 | 5-12 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - | |
| Jakob Poeltl * | 28 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 21 | - | |
| Dejounte Murray * | 28 | 4-14 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - | |
| Keldon Johnson * | 26 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - | |
| Patty Mills | 22 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | 18 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - | |
| Rudy Gay | 18 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Tre Jones | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Gorgui Dieng | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Luka Samanic | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Devin Vassell | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
* = starter