Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.7% | 70.3% | +4.8 | ✓ (17.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.3% | 68.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +22 (113-91). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Olynyk * | 32 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Christian Wood * | 31 | 8-16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. * | 30 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| John Wall * | 30 | 4-14 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jae'Sean Tate * | 28 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Armoni Brooks | 25 | 3-12 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Avery Bradley | 21 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | 18 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| D.J. Wilson | 11 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Anthony Lamb | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| DaQuan Jeffries | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 38 | 12-20 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 30 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 29 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala * | 28 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 28 | 7-14 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 22 | 1-9 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 19 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 13 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter