Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.1% | 79.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.2% | 67.8% | +4.1 | ✓ (12.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 27.3% | 72.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +17 (123-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 28 | 7-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 24 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 24 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 26 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 19 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 17 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 16 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 6 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 32 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 17 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 32 | 10-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris * | 26 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 26 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Will Barton * | 25 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| PJ Dozier | 28 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo | 26 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 18 | 6-8 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Paul Millsap | 13 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Markus Howard | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter