Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.0% | 69.0% | +4.4 | ✓ (15.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 23.9% | 76.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns +20 (106-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 32 | 6-16 | 2-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 29 | 5-12 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 26 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 20 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 27 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 27 | 3-11 | 0-7 | 6-8 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 18 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae Crowder * | 27 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Deandre Ayton * | 26 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Chris Paul * | 25 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Devin Booker * | 22 | 4-16 | 1-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Mikal Bridges * | 20 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cameron Johnson | 29 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Cameron Payne | 22 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 21 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 20 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dario Saric | 17 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jalen Smith | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Ty-Shon Alexander | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter