Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.6% | 64.4% | +3.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (110-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder * | 40 | 2-12 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 39 | 11-20 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris * | 33 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Wesley Matthews * | 28 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Andre Drummond * | 26 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Alex Caruso | 21 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Montrezl Harrell | 21 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Ben McLemore | 17 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Alfonzo McKinnie | 12 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 8-11 | 1-2 | 11-12 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo * | 25 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 30 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 26 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 21 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - |
* = starter