Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.6% | 50.4% | +0.1 | ✗ (12.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -12 (112-124). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks * | 30 | 10-16 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson * | 30 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Ja Morant * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 27 | 7-9 | 1-1 | 5-5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 25 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Desmond Bane | 22 | 6-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Xavier Tillman | 20 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| John Konchar | 20 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones | 18 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Killian Tillie | 13 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Sean McDermott | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 11-16 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo * | 33 | 6-14 | 1-4 | 3-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 26 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 25 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 27 | 7-10 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 22 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 18 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 13 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter