Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.2% | 46.8% | -0.7 | ✗ (7.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (116-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry * | 36 | 9-19 | 5-11 | 13-13 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 36 | - | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 35 | 7-16 | 5-11 | 4-6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23 | - | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 35 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. * | 34 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| James Wiseman * | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Damion Lee | 22 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kevon Looney | 20 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kent Bazemore | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jordan Poole | 12 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Mychal Mulder | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Nico Mannion | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 36 | 8-15 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 7-9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 9-9 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 26 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo * | 23 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 2-5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 35 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 23 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 17 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter