Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.7% | 47.3% | -0.6 | ✓ (4.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -5 (87-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 6-7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 7-12 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 25 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic * | 23 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 32 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 22 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 16 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis * | 35 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Caris LeVert * | 32 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 31 | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 27 | 6-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday * | 26 | 2-11 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 25 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 22 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Edmond Sumner | 15 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 13 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 10 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - |
* = starter