Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Trail Blazers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 25.3% | 74.7% | +5.9 | ✗ (8.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 53.4% | 46.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -3 (122-125). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard * | 38 | 6-19 | 2-8 | 8-8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 16 | - | |
| CJ McCollum * | 37 | 14-25 | 6-14 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 20 | - | |
| Robert Covington * | 34 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - | |
| Enes Kanter * | 32 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 26 | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 23 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Carmelo Anthony | 32 | 6-14 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 15 | - | |
| Nassir Little | 20 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Anfernee Simons | 20 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Ariza * | 33 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 33 | 9-13 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 20 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 13-16 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 34 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 26 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 26 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 35 | 9-19 | 5-9 | 6-6 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 23 | - | |
| Max Strus | 21 | 4-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 16 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter