Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.7% | 68.3% | +4.2 | ✗ (7.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -3 (106-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Holiday * | 41 | 5-11 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | - | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 40 | 4-17 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Domantas Sabonis * | 35 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Caris LeVert * | 34 | 5-18 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 29 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 31 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 19 | 7-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Edmond Sumner | 11 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb | 11 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 41 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 39 | 5-14 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 11-21 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 29 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 28 | 3-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 23 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 36 | 4-16 | 0-7 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza | 19 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 17 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter