Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.7% | 68.3% | +4.2 | ✗ (31.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -27 (110-137). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caris LeVert * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 31 | 10-12 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Domantas Sabonis * | 28 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday * | 27 | 6-9 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 21 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 29 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 17 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb | 17 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 16 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Edmond Sumner | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Cassius Stanley | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 31 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 31 | 2-11 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 30 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 26 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 18 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 4-15 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 23 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 19 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 9 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Trevor Ariza | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter