Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.5% | 65.5% | +3.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +4 (89-85). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 10-20 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 32 | 4-13 | 3-11 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 24 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 2-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 25 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 20 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant * | 35 | 5-15 | 0-5 | 3-5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kyle Anderson * | 30 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 29 | 3-13 | 2-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 24 | 3-13 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 23 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Brandon Clarke | 24 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - | - | |
| De'Anthony Melton | 23 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow | 18 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Desmond Bane | 17 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyus Jones | 12 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
* = starter