Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.1% | 47.9% | -0.5 | ✓ (26.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.0% | 35.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.0% | 35.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -27 (82-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray * | 35 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Gary Harris * | 35 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 34 | 9-14 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Paul Millsap * | 24 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Will Barton * | 21 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 24 | 7-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 19 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Monte Morris | 16 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo | 10 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| R.J. Hampton | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Markus Howard | 2 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 38 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 36 | 3-11 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala * | 25 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 21 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 20 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Avery Bradley | 17 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 16 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 16 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 12 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter