Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.1% | 52.9% | +0.6 | ✓ (19.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +20 (101-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 34 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Goran Dragic * | 29 | 5-12 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 23 | 4-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 20 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 38 | 8-16 | 2-8 | 4-6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 18 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 21 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - | |
| Max Strus | 15 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Maurice Harkless | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet * | 37 | 4-14 | 1-6 | 4-5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - | |
| OG Anunoby * | 34 | 8-12 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 16 | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 33 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 23 | - | |
| Norman Powell * | 31 | 10-18 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 10 | - | |
| Aron Baynes * | 23 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 19 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - | |
| Terence Davis | 16 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | - | |
| Malachi Flynn | 14 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Stanley Johnson | 13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - | |
| Yuta Watanabe | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Matt Thomas | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Paul Watson | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| DeAndre' Bembry | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Jalen Harris | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter