Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.1% | 52.9% | +0.6 | ✗ (9.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -9 (102-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 37 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 20 | - | |
| Goran Dragic * | 31 | 6-16 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 11 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 28 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 28 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 22 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 34 | 9-12 | 4-6 | 6-6 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 30 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 21 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Max Strus | 10 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OG Anunoby * | 39 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 17 | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 36 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 12 | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 36 | 7-18 | 3-8 | 7-8 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 21 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 2-12 | 1-10 | 3-4 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | - | |
| Aron Baynes * | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - | |
| Terence Davis | 24 | 6-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 22 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - | |
| Norman Powell | 18 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -1 | - | |
| Stanley Johnson | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter