Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.0% | 71.0% | +4.9 | ✓ (1.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (113-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Griffin * | 35 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee * | 35 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Jerami Grant * | 33 | 10-19 | 2-6 | 5-5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 27 | - | - | |
| Wayne Ellington * | 27 | 7-12 | 7-11 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Derrick Rose | 26 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 8-9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Josh Jackson | 20 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Sekou Doumbouya | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Saddiq Bey | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 36 | 6-9 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 9-15 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic * | 33 | 9-15 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 24 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 34 | 8-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Maurice Harkless | 29 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 20 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 12 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter