Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | +6.5 | ✗ (12.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Boston Celtics -6 (124-130). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 39 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 33 | - | |
| Trevor Ariza * | 35 | 8-13 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 15 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 26 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 7-13 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 14 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 24 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 3-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 17 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker * | 39 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 16 | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 38 | 11-16 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 27 | - | |
| Evan Fournier * | 34 | 11-16 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 26 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 33 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Robert Williams III * | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Tristan Thompson | 31 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith | 19 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 13 | - | |
| Carsen Edwards | 9 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 8 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter