Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.1% | 34.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 63.0% | 37.0% | -2.9 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -2 (105-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 37 | 10-21 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 16 | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 36 | 8-23 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 19 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 32 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Daniel Theis * | 28 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - | |
| Tristan Thompson * | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 28 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 20 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Robert Williams III | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - | |
| Semi Ojeleye | 13 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Carsen Edwards | 9 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 25 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 9-19 | 0-3 | 8-9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 21 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 5-11 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 21 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | - | |
| Avery Bradley | 23 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 20 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
* = starter