Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.0% | 56.0% | +1.3 | ✓ (26.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +28 (118-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 27 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Darius Bazley * | 25 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 23 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Al Horford * | 21 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| George Hill * | 21 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Roby | 24 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Justin Jackson | 18 | 2-7 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Hamidou Diallo | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Theo Maledon | 17 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 13 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Darius Miller | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Josh Hall | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Moses Brown | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 4-11 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 9-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 27 | 7-9 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 25 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 22 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Avery Bradley | 17 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 14 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 5 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Maurice Harkless | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter