Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.8% | 61.2% | +2.5 | ✓ (7.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +10 (93-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 24 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 26 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala * | 13 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 28 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 3-11 | 0-6 | 4-4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - | |
| Avery Bradley | 17 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - | |
| Maurice Harkless | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hardaway Jr. * | 38 | 6-18 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 35 | 9-22 | 3-10 | 6-9 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 28 | - | |
| Josh Richardson * | 34 | 5-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 28 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 22 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 27 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Trey Burke | 17 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Jalen Brunson | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | |
| James Johnson | 12 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter