Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.5% | 51.5% | +0.3 | ✓ (10.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +11 (119-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 38 | 10-18 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | - | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 37 | 3-15 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jrue Holiday * | 33 | 4-15 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Donte DiVincenzo * | 30 | 5-14 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 25 | 3-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 17 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 17 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bryn Forbes | 16 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| D.J. Augustin | 12 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 8-13 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Avery Bradley * | 29 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 23 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 28 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 26 | 9-17 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 15 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Maurice Harkless | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter