Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.5% | 51.5% | +0.3 | ✗ (47.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -47 (97-144). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 26 | 9-15 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 23 | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 25 | 10-13 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 23 | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 24 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 | - | |
| Donte DiVincenzo * | 19 | 6-8 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 18 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - | |
| Bobby Portis | 26 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - | |
| D.J. Augustin | 20 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | 19 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - | |
| Bryn Forbes | 17 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Jordan Nwora | 11 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - | |
| D.J. Wilson | 9 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Sam Merrill | 8 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 33 | 9-16 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 18 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 25 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 24 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - | |
| Maurice Harkless * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Meyers Leonard * | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn | 30 | 6-17 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 27 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 24 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | - | |
| Avery Bradley | 24 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 17 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Max Strus | 12 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | |
| Chris Silva | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter