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2020-12-25

Model Predictions

Model Golden State Warriors Milwaukee Bucks Spread Result
Elo 61.1% 38.9% - ✗
Bradley-Terry 43.6% 56.4% - ✓
Margin 46.4% 53.6% +0.8 ✓ (38.2 off)
Pythagorean 42.6% 57.4% - ✓
Efficiency 31.9% 68.1% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 32.7% 67.3% - ✓
Log Adjusted 32.6% 67.4% - ✓
Points Off/Def 33.9% 66.1% - ✓

Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +39 (138-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Golden State Warriors

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Stephen Curry * 28 6-17 2-10 5-5 4 6 1 0 19 - -
James Wiseman * 25 5-11 3-4 5-6 8 0 0 3 18 - -
Andrew Wiggins * 24 6-18 0-4 0-0 6 0 1 0 12 - -
Eric Paschall * 24 3-8 0-3 1-1 2 1 1 0 7 - -
Kelly Oubre Jr. * 19 1-10 0-5 1-2 5 1 1 0 3 - -
Brad Wanamaker 19 4-7 1-2 2-2 1 2 1 0 11 - -
Jordan Poole 19 4-11 1-6 2-2 1 0 0 0 11 - -
Damion Lee 18 2-4 2-4 3-3 2 1 0 0 9 - -
Mychal Mulder 17 1-4 1-4 0-0 3 0 0 1 3 - -
Marquese Chriss 14 1-4 0-2 2-4 5 1 0 2 4 - -
Juan Toscano-Anderson 12 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 1 0 0 0 - -
Kevon Looney 11 1-3 0-1 0-0 3 0 0 0 2 - -
Kent Bazemore 3 0-2 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 - -

Milwaukee Bucks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Giannis Antetokounmpo * 26 4-14 0-3 7-15 13 4 0 0 15 - -
Khris Middleton * 25 10-15 6-8 5-5 4 5 2 0 31 - -
Jrue Holiday * 25 6-9 0-2 0-0 4 6 0 1 12 - -
Donte DiVincenzo * 19 5-8 3-5 0-0 4 0 2 0 13 - -
Brook Lopez * 19 3-6 0-1 2-2 4 0 0 1 8 - -
Bobby Portis 25 5-9 0-3 0-0 12 2 1 1 10 - -
Pat Connaughton 18 1-3 0-1 0-0 7 2 0 0 2 - -
D.J. Wilson 13 3-4 3-3 0-0 4 0 0 1 9 - -
Bryn Forbes 13 3-5 2-3 0-0 0 0 0 0 8 - -
D.J. Augustin 13 4-6 3-3 2-2 0 1 0 0 13 - -
Torrey Craig 9 0-1 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 0 0 - -
Jordan Nwora 9 2-6 1-3 2-2 1 0 0 0 7 - -
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 9 2-2 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 4 - -
Sam Merrill 7 2-3 2-2 0-0 3 4 1 0 6 - -

* = starter