Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.3% | 47.7% | -0.5 | ✗ (17.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers +17 (109-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Nunn * | 32 | 8-27 | 1-9 | 6-6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 27 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem * | 23 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 20 | 2-9 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 40 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 10-12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard | 28 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 24 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kyle Alexander | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alize Johnson * | 38 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Edmond Sumner * | 30 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 24 | 6-14 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday * | 23 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| JaKarr Sampson * | 23 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 21 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 21 | 8-16 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| T.J. Leaf | 18 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 17 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 16 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| Brian Bowen II | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Naz Mitrou-Long | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter