Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.3% | 58.7% | +1.9 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 (116-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic * | 21 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 16 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 15 | 6-8 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 7 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 38 | 9-16 | 3-6 | 9-9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 30 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 24 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 18 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 18 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Meyers Leonard | 17 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 15 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 13 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 24 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Chris Paul * | 23 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 21 | 2-10 | 0-6 | 10-10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Steven Adams * | 19 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Darius Bazley | 26 | 8-14 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Hamidou Diallo | 24 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Terrance Ferguson | 23 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Nerlens Noel | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Abdel Nader | 16 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Devon Hall | 12 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Andre Roberson | 10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 10 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
* = starter