Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.0% | 68.0% | +4.2 | ✓ (17.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +22 (114-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Holiday * | 29 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 29 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 4-5 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| T.J. Warren * | 28 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo * | 28 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 24 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 21 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday | 18 | 2-8 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| JaKarr Sampson | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Edmond Sumner | 16 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Alize Johnson | 6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Goga Bitadze | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 5-11 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic * | 30 | 5-16 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 28 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 28 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 9-11 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 22 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 29 | 3-11 | 0-5 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 25 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 21 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 19 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter