Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.6% | 63.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.9% | 68.1% | +4.2 | ✓ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.3% | 72.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +14 (130-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Olynyk * | 34 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 8-8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 33 | 7-11 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 29 | 5-17 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 25 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 21 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 33 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 7-7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 27 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Solomon Hill | 16 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 14 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kyle Alexander | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khris Middleton * | 34 | 9-14 | 5-6 | 10-10 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33 | - | - | |
| Brook Lopez * | 31 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 7-7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | - | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 30 | 13-17 | 0-4 | 7-9 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 33 | - | - | |
| Eric Bledsoe * | 23 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Wesley Matthews * | 22 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| George Hill | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Marvin Williams | 21 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Pat Connaughton | 21 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kyle Korver | 8 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Ersan Ilyasova | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Sterling Brown | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
* = starter