Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 61.4% | 38.6% | -2.6 | ✗ (8.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat +6 (112-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown * | 38 | 9-23 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | - | |
| Gordon Hayward * | 36 | 5-13 | 0-5 | 5-6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 33 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 9-9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 22 | - | |
| Daniel Theis * | 26 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - | |
| Kemba Walker * | 26 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Brad Wanamaker | 21 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Semi Ojeleye | 19 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Marcus Smart | 15 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - | |
| Enes Freedom | 15 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Romeo Langford | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Robert Williams III | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Olynyk * | 32 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 21 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 11-18 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 25 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 29 | 6-12 | 5-11 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 15 | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 28 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 16 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 30 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 15 | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 28 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 7-7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 16 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 21 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 20 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
* = starter