Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.0% | 61.0% | +2.5 | ✗ (6.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (103-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet * | 42 | 8-16 | 7-12 | 13-13 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 36 | - | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 36 | 7-14 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 35 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 9-9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| OG Anunoby * | 32 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Marc Gasol * | 22 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Norman Powell | 29 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Serge Ibaka | 25 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Terence Davis | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Matt Thomas | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae Crowder * | 33 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler III * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Kendrick Nunn * | 15 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 30 | 6-13 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Goran Dragic | 27 | 9-14 | 3-7 | 4-5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 25 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Andre Iguodala | 19 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter